Losing Low Thia Khiang is a huge blow to voters’ confidence in Aljunied GRC, and the years of PAP plotting its town council’s downfall had succeeded, with the Singapore Court ruling in the PAP’s favour.
The last election in GE2015 saw only the Workers’ Party securing only a 1.9% margin, and the competition is actually more neck-to-neck than people believe.
Hougang SMC, a long-time opposition ward, is also suffering “opposition fatigue”. The WP lost 7% votes to PAP in the 2015 election, compared to 2011. Another 7% loss will be fatal, and create a PAP win. WP appeared complacent, thinking they can field whoever they want in this ward, changing out MP Png Eng Huat with a new face Dennis Tan.
Ang Mo Kio GRC, East Coast GRC, Nee Soon GRC, Jurong GRC and Holland-Bukit Timah GRC. Sure-win constituencies are guaranteeing at least 84 PAP seats in Parliament, and it is likely a complete wipeout if Aljunied GRC and Hougang SMC falls as well.
None of the existing PAP GRCs like Tanjong Pagar had ever voted for the Opposition in the past 55 years. Breaking this trend would require at least a 15% swing – which is statistically impossible.
Lest we be reminded that there were 70% voting PAP in the last election. A 20% swing in popular votes is fairy tale.
The coronavirus outbreak has also tipped the chances in the PAP’s favour, due to the economy being in a wreckage and massive unemployment among Singaporean voters.
The PAP government has also flexed their muscles, making more arrests and charging people to court for criticising the government. Even the Prime Minister’s nephew was not spared. Like unarmed hostages held at gun point, Singaporeans would behave obediently to avoid further punishments than to wrestle with their kidnappers.
The POFMA and Reserved Presidential Election episodes have both proven that no Singaporean, in the island, would ever oppose the law no matter how unfair it is. It is Singaporean’s nature to be a coward and not upset the status quo, and this is why the PAP will likely remain in government this election and the ones after.