The conditions have all been met: no tourists, crashed oil prices and poor citizens who are unable to support the domestic market. Singapore economy will die, in 3 months.
Let’s start off with the big boys: Kicking off the death is Singapore Arlines, which is going into bankruptcy. As of 2019, it had S$6.65 billion of debt and 96% of its capacity has been grounded. On top of airlines dying, the 4 terminal airports are also bleeding the country dry with expenses up to S$191 million a year. By April, SIA will die and by May, delist from the stock exchange.
The tourism sector in Singapore has already died in March, there is no use talking about them. Casinos are as good as closed, and those fancy structures in Singapore skylines are eating itself to bankruptcy.
Property landlords like CapitalMall with exposures to retail and office rentals, are also hurting with shop and business closures. They can only last two more months until May. Next will be the Singapore banks as they face increasing loan defaults, and this will peak by June.
The short-term solution of course is to print money, which will be announced on Thursday’s second coronavirus package. Singapore dollars crashed 4.16% against the US dollars in a single week, reaching 2009 GFC’s exchange rate, with more room to fall come Thursday.
The domestic market will still crash as local citizens and cheap foreign labour in Singapore are too poor to spend. This deepens the vicious cycle as Singaporeans go out of jobs and save more cash in anticipation of food inflation and shortage.
The biggest spending for the common person today is at supermarkets, but NTUC and the marts are not making money either. This is because Singapore is a price taker that relies only on import, and other countries facing recession of their own are putting up export prices to cushion their losses. Stories about domestic food production supporting the island of 5.7 million population is all fake news.
Where then is the solution? Well, Singaporeans should get their answers from who they vote from and not from people they did not vote for. In short, I will not provide any. Singaporeans must pay for their political decisions voting pigs as leaders.